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Born in the wind sector, behind leader’s back

Seasonal Forecast

Nebbo SEASONAL FORECAST is a long-range forecast that provides information about the expected future wind speed anomalies averaged over the next one to 12 months. This new methodology has been built to improve climatology for wind speed anomaly forecasts for up to the next 12 months.

Technical Specifications

Nebbo SEASONAL specifications:

  • Monthly wind speed anomaly forecast for the next six months.
  • Quarterly, biannual, and annual wind speed anomaly forecasts for the next 12 months.
  • Site-specific validation.

Nebbo SEASONAL deliverables:

  • Maps with ensemble-mean fields for the next six months.
  • Global seasonal forecasts maps for different seasonal models:

ECMWF, NCEP, Met Office, Meteo France, DWD, CMCC, JMA

  • Time horizon maps for the next six months with anomalies for the individual, next three, and next six months.
  • Downloadable .kmz files for all maps.

Nebbo SEASONAL interface:

  • Interactive interface for all users.
  • All data, past and future, are available for analysis.

Nebbo SEASONAL features:

Site-specific:

  • Monthly forecast for wind speed anomalies for the next 12 months using the Nebbo SEASONAL model.
  • Ensemble probability distribution with tercile probability for the next six months.
  • Predictability information for each forecast calculated from past model performance.
  • Monthly climatology analysis for the wind speed and anomalies.
  • .xls and .csv data files are available to download.

Clustering:

  • Different cluster sites can be selected for extended region analyses.
  • Cluster information contains the features in the site-specific category built from the average of all sites selected.

Interface

Information is provided in different formats in the Nebbo interface: global maps, sites and clusters predictions, and climatology. Historical data are also available in global maps for the last 4 years. For sites and clusters, historical data can be found in the climatology tab providing monthly analyses for the last 30 years including both wind speed and wind speed anomalies.

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