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Curious about Brazil's wind anomaly forecast for Fall-Winter 2024?

Fall — March to May

Central and southern Brazil anticipate above-average wind speeds, contrasting with below-average winds expected in northern and eastern regions. The ECMWF recently unveiled wind speed forecasts for the upcoming months. Certain regions in the country may encounter over a 10% positive anomaly while others may see nearly a 15% negative anomaly.

It’s noteworthy that multiple forecast providers, including JMA, UKMO, and NCEP models, align with the trends observed by the ECMWF model. The NCEP model, in particular, predicts larger anomaly values, with some areas potentially reaching nearly a 15% positive or negative wind anomaly.

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FW — March to August

When combining fall and winter outcomes, Brazil anticipates above-average wind speeds overall, with ECMWF projections peaking at an 8% positive anomaly. The JMA, UKMO, and NCEP models reaffirm this trend, but project values nearing almost 15% positive anomaly.

Despite identifying this strong mean trend four to six months in advance, it is vital to acknowledge that the uncertainty of the forecast amplifies with time. As a result, the mean value shown for this next semester may deviate from reality at the end.